After A Strong Q2, The Bulls Appear Ready To Continue Their Buying Spree In July

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Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Well, the first half of 2020 is now behind us. Wow. That may have been the craziest six months that we've ever seen from a failed presidential impeachment to the Covid-19 pandemic to murder hornets to social unrest and riots across America. Covid-19 very well put the U.S. in a recession, but market participants just don't care. Instead, the blame is put squarely on coronavirus and its temporary effect (although there are incessant warnings in headlines everyday about the number of new infections regularly setting records). Again, all part of the crazy narrative. Analysts are always looking out into the distance and the consensus seems to be that the U.S. is going to recover quickly from the recession and economic fallout owing to Covid-19. The optimism for a recover after the 30+% collapse in February and March was clearly evident during the second quarter. After its worst Q1 since 1938, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best quarter since Q4 1998. Other major indexes posted similar results, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite making new record highs. To the north, Toronto exchanges performed very well too, particularly the smaller TSX-Venture, which has simply been on a roll. Candidly, we don't know if anyone knows what to expect for the third quarter. Whatever someone spits out, you can find someone else to vehemently disagree. Momentum is certainly in the favor of stocks, so let's look and see if there are any technical hints that things could reverse course in July.

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