Key U.S. Indicator Signals Recession Ahead

Key U.S. Indicator Signals Recession Ahead

By: Tomas Ronolski - AllPennyStocks.com News

Friday, January 27, 2023

A key economic indicator is pointing to a recession in the United States. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index, considered a reliable leading indicator of recessions, dropped for the 10th consecutive month in December. The fall of 1 percent exceeded expectations of 0.7 percent.

By providing forward looking indicators across various areas of economic activity, the LEI is considered a gauge into the business cycle and the health of the economy. The index consists of ten indicators, covering a wide array of economic activity, including stock prices, job growth and housing construction.  

The LEI level typically peaks 11-12 months ahead of a recession—most recent data show that the index peaked in February 2022 and has since been on a downward trajectory. In December, seven of the 10 components fell, following November’s decline of 1.1 percent.





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