Petrobras to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras PBR is set to release second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.36 per share on revenues of $33.4 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced the integrated oil and gas firm’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But it is worth taking a look at PBR’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q1 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Rio de Janeiro-based Brazilian state-run energy giant missed the consensus mark due to weaker-than-expected sales for the quarter. Petrobras reported adjusted earnings per ADS of 70 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.02. Moreover, the company’s quarterly revenues of $23.5 billion lagged the consensus estimate of $26.4 billion.

PBR’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, resulting in a negative surprise of 2.5%, on average.

This is depicted in the graph below:

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras Price and EPS Surprise

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras price-eps-surprise | Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras Quote

PBR’s Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second-quarter bottom line has been revised 0.7% upward in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates 112.5% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for revenues, meanwhile, indicates a 58.9% rise from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider Ahead of PBR’s Q2 Results

Despite strong operational momentum, Petrobras could face an earnings miss in the quarter to be reported due to several headwinds. The company continues to absorb fuel price volatility rather than fully passing higher international prices to domestic customers, relying on government subsidies that create working capital uncertainty and delay cash receipts. Management also acknowledged that diesel imports will likely be required in the second half to meet seasonal demand, while planned refinery maintenance could weigh on production efficiency. Rising capital spending on new upstream projects, debt reduction priorities over shareholder distributions, and continued geopolitical uncertainty that could trigger sharp oil price swings may further pressure earnings and investor sentiment.

On a bullish note, per its ‘Production and Sales Report’ issued for the second quarter of 2026, Petrobras is likely to have recorded a strong quarter, with total oil, gas and natural gas liquids production rising 14.1% year over year to 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboed). This growth was driven by increased operational efficiency, the ramp-up of FPSOs Maria Quitéria in the Jubarte field, Alexandre de Gusmão in the Mero field, and P-78 in the Búzios field, as well as the start-up of FPSO P-79 in the Búzios field. A total of 10 new wells were brought online, including four in the Campos Basin and six in the Santos Basin.

What Does Our Model Predict for PBR?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PBR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of Petrobras: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +15.87%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

PBR’s Zacks Rank: PBR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some firms from the energy space, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Calumet, Inc. CLMT has an Earnings ESP of +169.57% and a Zacks Rank of 2 currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CLMT is scheduled to release earnings on Aug. 7. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calumet’s current quarter earnings per share indicates 86.5% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $3.8 billion, the company’s shares have surged 188.9% in a year.

Similarly, Plains All American Pipeline, L PAA has an Earnings ESP of +6.71% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. PAA is slated to release earnings on Aug. 7.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share indicates 0.65% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $17.3 billion, Plains’ shares have gained 37% in a year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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