Will Investment Income Headwinds Weigh on AIG's Q2 Results?

Insurance provider American International Group, Inc. AIG is set to report its second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.89 per shareon revenues of $7.27 billion.

The second-quarter earnings estimate declined by 4 cents over the past 60 days. Yet, the bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 4.4%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 6.3%.

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For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for American International’s revenues is pegged at $29.09 billion, implying a rise of 5.9% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $7.97, implying a 12.4% year-over-year growth.

American International beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the average surprise being 15.1%. This is depicted in the figure below.

American International Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

American International Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American International Group, Inc. Quote

Q2 Earnings Whispers for AIG

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

AIG has an Earnings ESP of -1.12% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping AIG’s Q2 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter General Insurance net premiums earned indicates 7.7% year-over-year growth. Also, North America and International units are expected to have witnessed year-over-year increases.

The consensus estimate for adjusted pre-tax income from General Insurance indicates around a 0.6% increase from the year-ago quarter. But the same from the Other Operations indicates a higher level of loss in the second quarter of 2025 from the year-ago period.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter combined ratio from the General Insurance segment is pegged at 90.1%, deteriorating from the year-ago level of 89.3%. Also, the combined ratio from its international commercial operations indicates a deterioration to 87.6% from 85.9% a year ago.

The consensus mark for net investment income suggests a 32.1% decline from the year-ago period, likely due to changes in the fair value of its investments in Corebridge and equity securities. These are likely to have partially offset the positives in the second quarter, making an earnings beat uncertain.

How Did Other Insurers Fare This Quarter?

Several insurance companies, including Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MRSH, Lincoln National Corporation LNC and RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR, have already reported their financial results for the June quarter of 2026. Here’s how they performed:

Marsh reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.96, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.8%. The bottom line advanced 8.8% year over year.Its strong quarterly results benefited from solid growth in the Risk and Insurance Services and Consulting units. However, the upside was partially offset by Marsh’s elevated operating expenses, primarily due to increased compensation and benefits.

Lincoln National reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.24, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12%, but declined 5.1% year over year. The quarterly earnings were supported by higher net investment income and lower expenses. Improved profitability in the Life Insurance and Retirement Plan Services segments also contributed to the upside. Nevertheless, these gains were partly offset by lower sales in LNC’s Annuities and Group Protection segments.

RenaissanceRe reported second-quarter 2026 operating income of $12.92 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.9%. The bottom line also improved 5.1% year over year. The quarterly earnings benefited from lower expenses, higher net investment income and an improved total combined ratio. However, the upside was partly offset by lower net premiums earned, weaker underwriting results in RNR’s Casualty & Specialty segment and lower fee income.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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