Brinker to Post Q4 Earnings: Will Chili's Momentum Aid Results?

Brinker International, Inc. EAT is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Aug. 12, before the opening bell.

EAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 6.8%.

Trend in the Estimate Revision of EAT

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $3.07, indicating a rise of 23.3% from $2.49 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Brinker International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Brinker International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Brinker International, Inc. Quote

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.53 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 4.6% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.

Factors Likely to Shape EAT’s Quarterly Results

Brinker’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued momentum at Chili’s, supported by positive traffic, strong value positioning and improvements in the overall guest experience. Management stated that April started the quarter with mid-single-digit sales growth and positive traffic and expressed confidence that Chili’s would deliver mid-single-digit sales growth and positive traffic for the quarter to be reported.

The chicken sandwich platform is likely to have been a key contributor to Chili’s sales and traffic in the to-be-reported quarter. The platform was launched on April 14, with the Big Crispy and Spicy Big Crispy included at the $10.99 opening price point of the 3 for Me platform. The launch was backed by the Better Than Fast Food campaign, emphasizing portion size and value relative to fast-food alternatives.

Chili’s continued focus on everyday value, food, service and atmosphere is also expected to have aided customer engagement. Management has emphasized maintaining a compelling value proposition while attracting new guests through marketing and menu innovation. Its operational strategy has centered on simplifying restaurant processes and improving cycle times to support higher throughput. The company noted that its higher-volume “north of 6” restaurants serve 20% to 80% more guests than the current average restaurant, indicating additional capacity for traffic growth over time. Our model predicts fiscal fourth-quarter revenues from Chili’s to rise 5.1% year over year to $1.41 billion.

Meanwhile, Maggiano’s is likely to have remained a headwind to consolidated revenue growth. The brand continued to experience negative comparable sales and traffic trends in the previous quarter. However, management noted sequential improvement after adjusting for weather and calendar effects, supported by more abundant portions, enhanced family-style offerings and the return of classic menu items. Improving value scores are encouraging, although management expects the turnaround to remain gradual. Our model predicts fiscal fourth-quarter revenues from Maggiano's to decline 0.4% year over year to $121.9 million.

On the earnings front, Brinker is likely to have benefited from sales leverage and labor efficiencies. Management expects continued top-line momentum to provide operating leverage, with labor expected to offset some of the pressure from higher food and beverage costs. Improved restaurant productivity is also likely to have supported profitability. The company also anticipates restaurant margin growth to resume on a year-over-year basis in the fiscal fourth quarter. Our model predicts Food and Beverage Costs to rise 3.6% year over year to $382.5 million.

However, higher commodity costs are likely to have tempered earnings growth. Management expects commodity inflation to run in the mid-single digits during the fiscal fourth quarter, with beef remaining a key source of pressure. The company also indicated that food and beverage costs could increase sequentially following the expiration of a beef contract.

What Our Model Says About EAT Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Brinker this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP for EAT: Brinker has an Earnings ESP of +0.12%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Brinker’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are a few other stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Sweetgreen, Inc. SG has an Earnings ESP of +5.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 35% year-over-year increase. SG’s earnings missed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 42.4%.

CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA currently has an Earnings ESP of +12.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to increase 6.3% year over year. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 16.6%.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL currently has an Earnings ESP of +133.33% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Cracker Barrel’s earnings are expected to register an 83.8% year-over-year decline. Cracker Barrel’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 128.6%.

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