How to Boost Your Portfolio with Top Retail and Wholesale Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Target?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Target (TGT) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.61 a share, just seven days from its upcoming earnings release on August 19, 2026.

By taking the percentage difference between the $2.61 Most Accurate Estimate and the $2.24 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Target has an Earnings ESP of +16.66%. Investors should also know that TGT is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

TGT is one of just a large database of Retail and Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Costco (COST).

Costco is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on September 24, 2026. COST's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $6.61 a share 43 days from its next earnings release.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco is $6.51, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +1.45%.

TGT and COST's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

Should You Invest in Target Corporation (TGT)?

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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