MDT's Q1 Earnings on Deck: How Should You Play the Stock Now?

Medtronic plc MDT is slated to report its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Sept. 1, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) suggests 10.3% year-over-year growth to $1.39. The estimate has remained constant in the past 60 days. The consensus mark for first-quarter revenues currently stands at $9.47 billion, implying a 10.4% increase over the prior-year period. 

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Medtronic has a solid earnings surprise history, beating estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.3%.

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Q1 Earnings Whispers for MDT

Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has a higher chance of beating estimates. This is not the case here, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: Medtronic has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped MDT’s Q1 Performance

Cardiovascular

The segment is likely to have witnessed a solid performance across both U.S. and international markets. Within this, Cardiac Ablation Solutions (“CAS”) is expected to have remained the key growth driver, supported by momentum in the pulsed field ablation portfolio, which grew 145% in the previous quarter. The launch of the Sphere-9 catheter in Japan may have also strengthened Medtronic’s position in the region. 

The company has also begun the global rollout of Prism-2, its next-generation mapping software, which offers improved navigation through hybrid impedance and magnetic mapping. In June 2026, Medtronic announced strategic investments in two privately held companies focused on the development of intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) catheter technologies, which may have provided an additional boost to revenues. 

Cardiac Rhythm Management may also have contributed, driven by Micra leadless pacemakers, Aurora implantable cardioverter defibrillator (EV-ICD) system and the SelectSecure 3830 lead.

In Structural Heart, revenues are expected to have benefited from continued international strength as well as stabilizing U.S. procedure volumes. Growth in the Symplicity Spyral renal denervation system, guide catheters and balloons, as well as Endovenous growth in Peripheral Vascular Health, may have boosted Coronary & Peripheral Vascular sales.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate implies Cardiovascular revenues will increase 15.2% year over year.

Neuroscience

Medtronic continues to invest across its Neuroscience portfolio to advance pipeline innovation and support long-term growth. Within this, Cranial and Spinal Technologies results in the fiscal first quarter may benefit from the continued adoption of the AiBLE ecosystem, with Core Spine and Neurosurgery also likely contributing to growth. The commercial rollout of the Stealth AXiS surgical system may have further advanced. In June, Medtronic received the CE mark for the ear, nose and throat indications, expanding the platform’s reach.

Neuromodulation performance is expected to have been led by the Inceptiv closed-loop spinal cord stimulator, the Percept RC neurostimulator with BrainSense technology, and Interventional products.

Medtronic completed two acquisitions within this business. The Scientia Vascular acquisition in June adds a portfolio of guidewires and catheters to its existing neurovascular product lineup, while the July acquisition of SPR Therapeutics, Inc. (SPR) expands its ability to serve patients across the pain care continuum.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate expects Neuroscience revenues to grow 10.7% year over year.

Medical Surgical (MedSurg)

In the fiscal first quarter, MedSurg performance is expected to have been driven by solid growth in Advanced Energy and Wound Management, alongside higher contribution from the Hugo robotic-assisted surgery system. However, similar to recent trends, continued pressure on U.S. bariatric surgery procedure volumes may have partially offset this growth.

Endoscopy is likely to have been a growth driver, with sales benefiting from strong adoption of Endoflip in the United States and Western Europe, as well as from U.S. market share gains of the Nexpowder hemostasis system. Acute Care and Monitoring may have gained from strength in Nellcor pulse oximetry, respiratory and airways and in perioperative.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MedSurg’s revenues suggests a 7.6% year-over-year increase.

Diabetes

MiniMed, Medtronic’s diabetes business, completed an initial public offering in March, with approximately 10% of its ownership sold and its shares beginning to trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. Medtronic continues to hold approximately 90% ownership in MiniMed.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the business is likely to have witnessed robust international contributions from the continued adoption of the MiniMed 780G Automated Insulin Delivery (AID) system, including the Simplera Sync and Guardian 4 continuous glucose monitoring sensors and Extended Infusion Sets. U.S. momentum may also have continued following the late-2025 launches of the Simplera Sync and Abbott’s Instinct sensors. 

The quarter also saw several key developments. MiniMed announced the commercial availability of MiniMed Flex, its smallest app-controlled insulin pump powered by the advanced SmartGuard algorithm. The system is FDA cleared for people with type 1 diabetes aged 7 years and older, as well as adults aged 18 years and older with insulin-requiring type 2 diabetes and is paired with the Simplera Sync sensor. MiniMed Flex is also now available to Medicare and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries.

MiniMed launched the MiniMed 780G system integrated with Abbott’s Instinct sensor and the MiniMed Go system with the Instinct Go sensor in Europe. Together, these developments are expected to have strongly boosted overall revenues in the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests Diabetes revenues will grow 15.1% year over year.

MDT Stock Price Performance

Over the past three months, Medtronic shares have outperformed the industry and the broader Medical sector.

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The stock has also fared better than major peers like Boston Scientific BSX, whose shares fell 2%, while Edward Lifesciences EW gained 4.8%. Boston Scientific’s second-quarter 2026 revenues and EPS surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1% and 3.6%, respectively. However, the company lowered its 2026 sales and earnings outlook after slower WATCHMAN demand, U.S. electrophysiology share losses and limited operating leverage weakened near-term visibility. Meanwhile, Edwards’ second-quarter revenues and EPS topped the consensus mark by 2.4% and 6.8%, respectively.

MDT’s Valuation

Medtronic trades at a forward five-year Price/Earnings (P/E) of 14.98X, lower than its median of 15.73X and the industry average of 17.74X.

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Endnote

Medtronic’s upcoming fiscal first-quarter results are expected to reflect ongoing momentum in CAS, as well as strength in businesses such as Cardiac Rhythm Management and Cranial and Spinal Technologies. At the same time, the company is also advancing its M&A and venture initiatives, targeting higher-growth segments to accelerate innovation.

While current indicators do not point to a strong earnings beat, the company has a consistent earnings surprise history, which is encouraging. Medtronic’s recent stock performance has been impressive, outpacing the key benchmarks and peers. Existing MDT shareholders should consider holding their positions, supported by the company’s attractive valuation.  

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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