Lincoln National Stock Gains 25% in 3 Months: Hold or Fold?

Lincoln National Corporation LNC is pursuing growth through its ongoing business transformation and the continued expansion of its spread-based annuity business. Life Insurance is showing improved performance, while Group Protection continues to demonstrate momentum. Expense discipline remains a key priority, and the company’s strengthened capital position provides greater financial flexibility.

Lincoln National is a diversified company operating across four core businesses: Annuities, Life Insurance, Group Protection and Retirement Plan Services. The company provides annuity, life insurance, group protection and retirement solutions. Its strategy focuses on strengthening the balance sheet, optimizing its operating model and driving more profitable and durable growth across its businesses. LNC stock has risen 25% over the past three months compared with the industry’s average gain of 14.2%. LNC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) along with a Value Score of C.

Where Do Estimates for LNC Stand?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lincoln National’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $7.97 per share. In the past 30 days, it has witnessed five upward estimate revisions against no movement in the opposite direction. Furthermore, the consensus mark for 2026 revenues is pegged at $19.88 billion, indicating a 4.2% year-over-year rise. The company beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.9%.

Lincoln National Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Lincoln National Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Lincoln National Corporation Quote

LNC Stock’s Growth Drivers

Lincoln National continues to shift its annuity business toward spread-based products, which accounted for 63% of total annuity sales in the second quarter of 2026. Annuity sales totaled $3.5 billion, while ending account balances reached a record $182 billion, up nearly 9% year over year. The growing mix of spread-based products is expected to increase their contribution to earnings and free cash flow over time.

Life Insurance remains an important growth area. The business is shifting new business toward expanding segments and products while focusing on capital efficiency. Second-quarter sales rose 79% year over year to $216 million, while operating income increased $25 million to $57 million. Favorable mortality was a key contributor to the improvement.

Group Protection has further growth potential through its focus on supplemental health and local markets. Supplemental health premiums increased 28% year over year, while local-market premiums grew more than 3% in the second quarter. Continued expansion in these areas could support premium growth and improve the business mix over time.

Technology and digital initiatives are another part of Lincoln National’s operating strategy. The company continues to expand automation, digital processing and self-service capabilities across its businesses. These investments can improve efficiency, simplify new-business processing and create operating leverage over time.

Capital strength remains a key factor supporting Lincoln National’s growth strategy. Holding-company available liquidity, net of prefunding, rose to $903 million as of June 30, 2026, from $655 million as of 2025-end. The RBC ratio remained above 420% compared with the company’s 400% target and 20-point buffer. The $500 million subordinated debt issuance also increased financial flexibility and supports the company’s broader capital management objectives.

Key Concern

Market volatility remains a key risk for Lincoln National, particularly in its annuity business. Variable annuity earnings can fluctuate with equity-market movements, while changes in interest rates and market conditions can affect spread income, investment returns and customer behavior. A weaker market environment could therefore pressure earnings and reduce the pace of cash flow growth.

Lincoln National has relatively higher financial leverage than the industry, with a total debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 37.7% compared with the industry average of 15.1%. Higher leverage can increase financial risk and limit financial flexibility, particularly during periods of market volatility. LNC is also trading at approximately 0.8X trailing 12-month price-to-book, well below the industry average of 2.25X, suggesting that the stock continues to trade at a significant valuation discount to its peers.

Key Picks

Some better-ranked stocks in the broader Finance space are The Allstate Corporation ALL and Horace Mann Educators Corporation HMN, both sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, and Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated RGA, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Allstate’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $34.45 per share, which has witnessed 11 upward revisions in the past 30 days, with no movement in the opposite direction. ALL beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 45.3%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $71.25 billion, implying 5% year-over-year growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Horace Mann’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $4.78 per share, which has seen two upward revisions over the past 30 days, with no downward revision. HMN beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 30.8%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pegged at $1.77 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Reinsurance Group’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $29.22 per share, indicating 28.6% year-over-year growth. RGA beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 22.8%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $26.94 billion, implying 12.5% year-over-year growth.

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