Why You Should Retain Nutrien Stock in Your Portfolio Now

Nutrien Ltd. NTR benefits from supportive potash and nitrogen fundamentals, higher fertilizer prices, record potash volumes, improving upstream costs, Retail proprietary product growth and ongoing productivity initiatives. However, elevated sulfur costs, constrained nitrogen volumes following facility shutdowns, weaker Retail crop nutrient volumes, higher fuel costs and continued exposure to natural gas and phosphate market volatility could weigh on margins, free cash flow and near-term financial flexibility. 

The stock has gained 36.8% over a year compared with the industry’s 40.1% decline.

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Let’s find out why NTR stock is worth retaining at the moment. 

NTR Benefits From Favorable Potash and Nitrogen Demand

Nutrien continues to benefit from favorable crop nutrient fundamentals, particularly in potash. Management expects global potash shipments of 74-77 million tons in 2026, with demand supported by favorable affordability. First-half 2026 potash sales volumes reached a record 7.45 million tons, driven by low inventories and offshore demand, prompting the company to raise full-year sales volume guidance to 14.2-14.8 million tons.  

Nitrogen fundamentals also remain supportive, with the global market expected to stay tight in the second half of 2026 due to trade disruptions, production outages, elevated energy prices and strong import demand from India and Brazil. 

North American crop input demand should benefit from firming crop prices and an earlier fall application season, while Australia continues to see favorable grower engagement. Nutrien’s Retail business is also benefiting from higher proprietary product penetration in crop nutrition and crop protection. Proprietary product gross margin rose 18% year over year to $843 million in the first half of 2026, helping Retail adjusted EBITDA increase 4% to $1.24 billion despite lower crop nutrient volumes and higher fuel costs. 

Management maintained 2026 Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.75-$1.95 billion. The midpoint assumes high-single-digit growth in proprietary products gross margins, increased crop nutrient margins per ton and sustained demand for crop inputs and services in Australia. Nutrien also continues to direct investment toward proprietary products, network optimization and digital capabilities, supporting a broader shift toward differentiated offerings and higher-value customer relationships across its Retail platform.

NTR Strengthens Costs While Benefiting From Higher Prices

Nutrien continues to improve the cost position of its upstream assets while focusing spending on productivity and reliability. Potash controllable cash cost of product manufactured remained below $60 per ton in the first half of 2026, alongside record production and continued mine automation. Nitrogen also benefited from lower overall natural gas costs and reliability initiatives at its North American facilities.  

Management lowered 2026 capital expenditures guidance to $1.95-$2.05 billion from $2-$2.1 billion, citing capital efficiency and structural free cash flow growth. The company is prioritizing mine automation, low-cost nitrogen brownfield projects, Retail network optimization and digital capabilities, which should support productivity and capital returns without requiring a broad-based expansion program.

Fertilizer pricing remained favorable through the first half of 2026 after the recovery that began in 2025. Potash average net selling price increased 13% year over year to $266 per ton in the first half, while nitrogen average net selling price rose 14% to $416 per ton. These gains helped Potash's adjusted EBITDA increase 15% to $1.24 billion, and Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA rise 4% to $1.12 billion despite lower nitrogen volumes.  

Management also noted that global urea prices strengthened in the third quarter of 2026 after a seasonal decline late in the second quarter, while potash markets remained constructive on favorable affordability and stable supply. Phosphate benchmarks were also higher, although sulfur costs offset the pricing benefit.

Nutrien Faces Sulfur Costs and Nitrogen Volume Constraints

Nutrien remains exposed to volatility in sulfur and natural gas, with elevated sulfur costs posing the biggest challenge. Constrained sulfur availability has reduced global phosphate operating rates and pressured phosphate economics, causing phosphate adjusted EBITDA to fall 48% year over year to $80 million in the first half of 2026 and 75% to $23 million in the second quarter, despite higher benchmarks and sales volumes. Management expects tight sulfur supply and elevated costs to limit phosphate margin recovery.  

Nitrogen volumes also remain constrained following the shutdown of the Trinidad facility in October 2025 and New Madrid at year-end 2025. Second-quarter volumes fell 25% and first-half volumes declined 16%, although 2026 guidance remains at 9.2-9.7 million tons, supported by reliability improvements, debottlenecking and higher ammonia operating rates expected in the fourth quarter. 

Nutrien’s Retail business continues to benefit from higher proprietary product margins, but weaker crop nutrient volumes are limiting earnings growth. Crop nutrient sales volumes declined 12% year over year in the second quarter and 6% in the first half, resulting in a 2% decline in Retail adjusted EBITDA in the quarter.  

Brazil demand remains sensitive to credit availability and affordability, leaving Retail growth dependent on proprietary margin gains and higher margin per ton offsetting softer volumes. 

Nutrien Ltd. Price and Consensus

NTR’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Worthington Steel, Inc. WS, Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS and Avient Corporation AVNT. WS currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while CRS and AVNT carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WS’ current-year earnings is $3.4 per share, implying a 52.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the negative average surprise being 13.8%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRS’s fiscal current-year earnings is pegged at $13.28 per share, implying a 23.4% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 8.4%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVNT’s current-year earnings is pegged at $3.2 per share, indicating a 13.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.4%. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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