Why Is Tyson (TSN) Down 6.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Tyson Foods (TSN). Shares have lost about 6.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tyson due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Tyson Foods Q3 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates, Volumes Fall Y/Y

Tyson Foods reported solid third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with the top line remaining relatively flat compared with the prior year and the bottom line increasing year over year. However, both revenues and earnings miss the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Tyson Foods posted adjusted earnings of 99 cents per share, which miss the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03. The bottom line increased 9% from 91 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Total sales of $13,868 million were in line with the prior year quarter’s $13,884 million. Excluding a $98 million legal contingency accrual recorded as a reduction to sales in the current-year quarter, sales increased 0.6%. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14,139 million. Average price changes had a 3.4% positive impact on the top line, while total volumes dipped 2.8% year over year.

The gross profit in the quarter was $921 million, down from $1,141 million reported in the year-ago period. 

Adjusted operating income rose 8.3% year over year to $547 million. The adjusted operating margin expanded 30 basis points to 3.9%.

Decoding TSN’s Segmental Details

Beef: Sales in the segment decreased to $5,391 million from $5,603 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Volumes fell 15.9% and the average price jumped 12.1% in the segment.

Pork: Sales in the segment increased to $1,580 million from $1,506 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Volumes grew 5.2% and the average price decreased 0.3%.

Chicken: Sales in the segment improved to $4,255 million from $4,220 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Volumes grew 1% and the average price was up 2.2%.

Prepared Foods: Sales in the segment came in at $2,557 million, up from $2,515 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Volumes grew 0.1% and the average price rose 1.6%.

International: Sales in the segment were $601 million compared with $557 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Volumes fell 3.5%, whereas the average sales price increased 11.4%.

Tyson Foods’ Other Financial Updates

The company exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $740 million, long-term debt of $6,579 million and total shareholders’ equity (including non-controlling interests) of $18,185 million. 

For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, cash provided by operating activities totaled $1,469 million, while capital expenditures were $556 million. For fiscal 2026, Tyson Foods expects capital expenditures in the range of $700 million to $900 million, primarily indicating investments in profit improvement, as well as maintenance and repair projects. The company expects free cash flow of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion for fiscal 2026.

What to Expect From TSN in FY26?

For fiscal 2026, the United States Department of Agriculture (“USDA”) anticipates domestic protein production (beef, pork, chicken and turkey) to rise around 1% compared with the level of fiscal 2025.

For the Beef segment, the USDA projects domestic protein production to dip nearly 3% year over year. The company expects an adjusted operating loss of $500-$650 million in fiscal 2026, compared with its earlier guidance of a $350-$500 million loss.

For Pork, the USDA projects domestic production to rise nearly 2%. The company expects adjusted operating income of $250-$300 million.

For Chicken, the USDA anticipates domestic production to grow about 3% year over year. The company still expects adjusted operating income of $1.9-$2.05 billion.

For Prepared Foods, management projects adjusted operating income of $1.3-$1.35 billion for fiscal 2026, compared with its previous forecast of $1.25-$1.35 billion.

For International, management projects adjusted operating income of $150-$200 million for fiscal 2026.

The company’s total revenue growth is anticipated in the range of 2.5-3.5% in fiscal 2026 compared with the fiscal 2025 level. Adjusted operating income is envisioned in the $2.1-$2.3 billion band, compared with its earlier guidance of $2.2-$2.4 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -7.6% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Tyson has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Tyson has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Tyson is part of the Zacks Food - Meat Products industry. Over the past month, Pilgrim's Pride (PPC), a stock from the same industry, has gained 15.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2026 more than a month ago.

Pilgrim's Pride reported revenues of $4.63 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2.8%. EPS of $0.64 for the same period compares with $1.70 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Pilgrim's Pride is expected to post earnings of $0.75 per share, indicating a change of -50.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -17.6% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Pilgrim's Pride. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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