Why Is Marriott (MAR) Down 3.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marriott International (MAR). Shares have lost about 3.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

MAR Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss, RevPAR Rises

Marriott International reported second-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues missing the same.

Adjusted earnings of $3.19 per share surpassed the consensus estimate of $3.06 by 4.2% and increased 20.4% year over year. Revenues of $7,071 million missed the consensus mark of $7,260 million by 2.6% but rose 4.8%. The results benefited from higher fee revenues, room growth and improved worldwide RevPAR, which increased 3.4%.

MAR's Q2 Earnings and Revenue Discussion

Adjusted net income amounted to $844 million, up 16% from $728 million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted operating income increased 12% year over year to $1.33 billion.

Gross fee revenues totaled $1.58 billion, reflecting an increase of 13% from the year-ago quarter. Franchise fees rose 19% to $1.02 billion, primarily driven by higher co-branded credit card fees, room growth and increased RevPAR.

Base management fees were $343 million, up 1% year over year. Incentive management fees increased 6% to $212 million, aided by strong growth in the United States and Canada, partly offset by declines in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Marriott's RevPAR and Regional Performance

Worldwide comparable systemwide RevPAR increased 3.4% in constant dollars year over year. The upside was backed by a 3.5% increase in average daily rate, while occupancy declined 0.1 percentage points to 71.6%.

Comparable systemwide RevPAR in the United States and Canada rose 5%. Average daily rate increased 4.7%, while occupancy improved 0.2 percentage points to 74%. The luxury category led the region, with composite luxury RevPAR advancing 9.1%.

International comparable systemwide RevPAR declined 0.5%. Europe RevPAR rose 4.2%, while Greater China and Asia Pacific excluding China increased 3.2% and 5.3%, respectively. Caribbean and Latin America RevPAR gained 3%.

Middle East and Africa RevPAR fell 33.1%, reflecting conflict-related headwinds. Occupancy in the region declined 15.8 percentage points, while average daily rate decreased 12.1%.

MAR's Expenses and Adjusted EBITDA

General and administrative expenses totaled $220 million compared with $210 million in the prior-year quarter. The increase reflected higher compensation costs, partly driven by timing.

Depreciation, amortization and other expenses increased to $115 million from $53 million. The rise primarily resulted from a $68 million impairment charge related to the sale of a U.S. and Canada hotel.

Adjusted operating margin expanded to 66% from 65% a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $1.59 billion, up 13% from $1.42 billion in the second quarter of 2025.

Marriott's Balance Sheet and Capital Returns

At the end of the second quarter, Marriott's total debt was $16.9 billion compared with $16.2 billion at the end of 2025. Cash and equivalents totaled $0.5 billion, up from $0.4 billion at the end of 2025.

The company repurchased 3 million shares for $1.1 billion during the quarter. Year to date through July 29, 2026, Marriott repurchased 6.2 million shares for $2.2 billion.
The company returned approximately $2.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the same period.

MAR's Unit Developments

Marriott added roughly 17,900 net rooms during the quarter, including approximately 11,000 net rooms in international markets. Net rooms grew 4.5% from the end of the second quarter of 2025.

At quarter-end, the company's global system comprised more than 10,000 properties and nearly 1.81 million rooms. Marriott Bonvoy membership exceeded 295 million.

The worldwide development pipeline reached a record 4,186 properties and approximately 629,000 rooms. The pipeline included 1,757 properties with more than 279,000 rooms under construction.

Conversions remained an important growth driver, representing more than one-third of signings and 40% of openings in the first half of 2026.

Marriott's Q3 and 2026 Outlook

For the third quarter of 2026, Marriott expects worldwide RevPAR growth of 3.5-4%. Gross fee revenues are projected between $1.47 billion and $1.48 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated in the range of $1.44-$1.47 billion. Adjusted earnings are expected between $2.74 and $2.82 per share.

For 2026, management raised its worldwide RevPAR growth forecast to 3-3.5%. Gross fee revenues are expected between $6.03 billion and $6.06 billion, while adjusted EBITDA is projected in the range of $5.97-$6.03 billion.

The company expects adjusted earnings of $11.64-$11.81 per share. Net room growth is anticipated at the low end of the 4.5-5% range, while capital returns to shareholders are projected to exceed $4.5 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, Marriott has a nice Growth Score of B, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Marriott has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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