Can CAVA's 2024 Cohort Support Its Next Phase of Unit Growth?

CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA is seeing strong performance from its newer restaurant vintages as it expands its national footprint. The company’s 2024 restaurant cohort is generating double-digit same-store sales and represents the highest-performing vintage in its portfolio. Based on the performance of that cohort, CAVA expects the 2026 classes to follow a similar maturation pattern.

The strength of newer vintages is important as CAVA increases its restaurant base. The company ended the second quarter of 2026 with 476 restaurants after opening 17 net new locations. New restaurant productivity remained above 100%, while recent openings continued to exceed expectations on both sales and margin performance. Systemwide average unit volumes reached $3.1 million.

New-unit strength has also been broad-based. CAVA reported solid performance across geographies and restaurant formats, including established and emerging markets. The company attributed part of this performance to rising brand awareness and investments aimed at supporting the guest experience and restaurant execution.

The maturation profile of newer restaurants provides additional support to CAVA’s expansion strategy. The company indicated that newer restaurants typically start at high sales levels, moderate during their first year after opening and subsequently rebound toward historical performance.

The 2024 cohort’s double-digit same-store sales performance provides evidence of continued growth as these restaurants mature. CAVA is also incorporating recent performance data into its site-selection models and cash-on-cash return analysis for future openings.

The 2024 cohort therefore provides an important benchmark for CAVA’s future development. Double-digit comps from this vintage, combined with above-100% new restaurant productivity and broad-based market strength, support the company’s current expansion trajectory. CAVA expects to open 75-77 net new restaurants in 2026.

Key Competitors Take Different Paths to Unit Growth

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG is supporting a sizable development pipeline with established new-unit economics. CMG opened 101 restaurants in the second quarter of 2026, including 80 Chipotlanes, and continues to expect approximately 350 openings for the full year. New restaurant productivity has remained near 80%, while second-year cash-on-cash returns are approximately 60%. Despite the higher development pace, the impact of new openings on comparable restaurant sales has remained near 100 basis points, consistent with historical levels. These trends likely support Chipotle’s long-term potential to operate at least 7,000 restaurants across North America.

Sweetgreen, Inc. SG is taking a more measured approach to restaurant expansion. The company opened four restaurants and closed two in the second quarter, ending the period with 287 locations. Sweetgreen is refining its prototype design, construction costs, market selection and new-unit economics while focusing on rebuilding average unit volumes, restaurant-level cash flow and profitability. SG expects to maintain a conservative development pace in 2027, similar to or slower than 2026, with an emphasis on locations that meet its return thresholds before accelerating growth.

CAVA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of CAVA have lost 7.4% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 8.1%.

CAVA’s Stock’s One-Year Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, CAVA stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.21, above the industry’s average of 3.27.

CAVA’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s 2027 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year uptick of 34%. The EPS estimates for 2027 have increased in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of CAVA Stock

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

CAVA stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Research Chief Names "Single Best Pick to Double"

From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all.

This company targets millennial and Gen Z audiences, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue last quarter alone. A recent pullback makes now an ideal time to jump aboard. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research