Can BROS Meet Its 5-6% Comp Target in 2026 Amid Tougher Comparisons?

Dutch Bros Inc. BROS maintains its 2026 systemwide same-shop sales growth outlook of 5-6%, with performance expected to trend toward the midpoint of the range. The outlook incorporates an anticipated moderation to approximately 4-5% in the third quarter. Second-quarter systemwide comps increased 5.8%, including transaction growth of 1.7%, while company-operated comps advanced 8.3% on a 3.4% increase in transactions.

The second quarter of 2026 extended BROS’ streak to 13 consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales and eight straight quarters of transaction growth. Performance benefited from the continued food rollout, maturation of newer shop vintages, brand-marketing initiatives and customer segmentation within Dutch Rewards. Comparable sales remained positive across all dayparts, with particular strength during the morning.

The second-half outlook reflects a more demanding comparison profile. Approximately one percentage point of pricing rolled off in early July, reducing the expected effective pricing contribution to less than one percentage point during the period. Transaction comparisons are also expected to become progressively more difficult through the remainder of the year.

The anniversary of the food rollout creates an additional comparison. BROS began introducing the program in the third quarter of 2025 and expanded it more meaningfully during the fourth quarter. Consequently, second-half 2026 results will be measured against periods that already included food sales. The company expects this comparison to affect primarily net ticket.

Despite the anticipated moderation in third-quarter comparable-sales growth, BROS has not changed its full-year systemwide comparable-sales outlook. Continued maturation of newer shops and strength in the morning daypart are likely to support comparable-sales performance during the remainder of 2026.

How MCD and SBUX Compare on Comparable-Sales Momentum

McDonald’s Corporation MCD is pursuing a more measured comparable-sales recovery. McDonald’s reported second-quarter global comp growth of 1.3%, with the United States increasing 0.8%. U.S. comps turned slightly negative in July as execution challenges carried into the third quarter. McDonald’s is focused on placing its U.S. baseline momentum in a stronger position by the end of 2026. International markets present a firmer outlook, with third-quarter comp growth in IOM and IDL expected to accelerate sequentially from second-quarter rates of 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively.

Starbucks Corporation SBUX enters its fiscal fourth quarter with stronger comparable-sales momentum. The company generated fiscal third-quarter global and U.S. comp growth of 7.9%, while U.S. transactions increased 4.2%. Starbucks expects fiscal fourth-quarter U.S. comps to rise 6.5% or better, implying full-year U.S. growth of slightly more than 6% and global growth approaching 6%. Starbucks acknowledged the tougher year-over-year traffic comparisons and continued variability in the broader consumer environment.

BROS’ Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Dutch Bros have declined 12.7% in the past six months compared with the industry’s fall of 10.9%.

BROS’ Stock’s Six-Month Price Performance

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From a valuation standpoint, Dutch Bros stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 3.25, below the industry’s average of 3.27.

BROS’ P/s Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BROS’ 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year uptick of 27.6%. The EPS estimates for 2026 have increased in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of BROS Stock

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Dutch Bros stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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