10x Genomics Rallies 84% in 3 Months: Is There More Upside Ahead?

10x Genomics, Inc. TXG has surged 84% in the past three months, putting pressure on its fundamentals to keep pace with the stock. Consumables growth, Atera demand and a higher 2026 outlook provide support.

Weak instrument sales, operating losses and an elevated valuation leave less room for disappointment. Comparisons with genomics peers help frame whether TXG can sustain its recent lead.

TXG’s Consumables Momentum Strengthens the Growth Case

Consumables remain the steadier part of TXG’s business. Second-quarter 2026 consumables revenues increased 7% year over year, with Single Cell consumables up 3% as Flex Apex supported double-digit reaction-volume growth.

Spatial consumables rose 16%, primarily driven by Xenium. Recurring usage gives TXG a more durable revenue base than instrument placements, which remain sensitive to funding and capital-spending conditions.

Atera Could Extend TXG’s Spatial Biology Opportunity

Atera adds another potential growth leg. Booked orders at the end of the second quarter already greatly exceeded TXG’s roughly 40-unit shipment plan for 2026, indicating strong early demand.

Near-term revenue conversion is constrained by manufacturing capacity, with most 2026 shipments expected in the fourth quarter. Customers are also moderating purchases of existing Spatial instruments before Atera arrives, creating a timing gap between demand and revenues.

How TXG Stacks Up Against ILMN and PACB

Illumina, Inc. ILMN offers a much larger-scale comparison. It reported second-quarter 2026 revenues of $1.16 billion, up 9.5% year over year, with a GAAP operating margin of 21.1%.

Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. PACB reported second-quarter revenues of $39.0 million compared with $39.8 million a year earlier, while consumables revenues increased to $20.1 million from $18.9 million. TXG’s recurring consumables growth stands out, but profitability and instrument demand remain key comparison points.

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TXG’s Raised Guidance Supports the Rally

Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $610 million-$630 million from $600 million-$625 million. Excluding nonrecurring patent-settlement revenues in both periods, the updated range represents 2%-5% growth over 2025.

The outlook assumes the academic funding environment remains roughly consistent with recent conditions. The higher guidance therefore does not depend on a funding recovery, though better conditions could improve purchasing activity.

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Weak Instruments and Losses Keep Risk Elevated

Second-quarter instrument revenues declined 47.2% year over year to $7.7 million. Single Cell instrument revenues fell 46.1%, while Spatial instrument revenues dropped 47.8%, reflecting fewer unit sales and the transition ahead of Atera.

TXG also recorded a $19.6 million operating loss despite gross margin reaching 74%. Stronger consumables demand has not yet translated into consistent operating leverage.

TXG’s Valuation Looks Demanding After the Rally

TXG trades at 11.9X forward 12-month sales compared with 6.0X for its Zacks sub-industry and a five-year median of 6.3X. The stock therefore carries a sizable premium after its sharp advance.

That valuation raises the execution bar. Continued consumables growth and a smooth Atera ramp may be needed to support the premium as investors weigh TXG against ILMN and PACB.

Style Scores Favor Momentum More Than Value

The bottom line is that TXG’s operating momentum has improved, but the 84.1% rally already reflects higher expectations. Atera demand and consumables trends provide support, while instrument weakness, losses and valuation limit the margin for error.

TXG currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with a Momentum Score of A, a Growth Score of B, a Value Score of F and a VGM Score of C. The scores favor momentum and growth characteristics more than value, while the Hold rank supports a balanced stance after the recent surge.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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