3 Sector Stocks to Gain From as Oil, Rates and Jobs Shape September

September is opening with an unusually difficult macro setup for U.S. equities. Brent crude remains above $90 a barrel, the 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed to 4.82% and the market is bracing for tomorrow’s August jobs report, as investors reassess the Federal Reserve’s next move. On Sept. 3, the 10-year yield eased to about 4.77% after New York Fed President John Williams said an immediate rate hike may not be necessary.

Markets nevertheless assigned roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s Sept. 16 meeting, according to CME-based FedWatch data.

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Against this backdrop, investors should expect greater sector rotation in September, with energy, financials and defensive healthcare better positioned than rate-sensitive growth and discretionary stocks. Chevron CVX, JPMorgan Chase JPM and UnitedHealth Group UNH stand out as three stocks to consider across these sectors. Let’s delve deeper.

September Equity-Market Setup

The biggest risk is a stagflationary mix. Higher oil prices threaten to revive inflation just as labor-market momentum is weakening. Payroll processor ADP reported only 38,000 private-sector jobs added in August, pointing to continued softness in labor-market conditions. Meanwhile, multiple sources expect Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report to show the addition of roughly 53,000 jobs.

That leaves the Fed facing a difficult trade-off. A weak payroll number could increase pressure to ease policy, but an oil-driven inflation rebound could limit its ability to do so. Conversely, stronger employment could support corporate earnings while keeping rates elevated. This asymmetric setup argues for companies whose earnings can withstand either outcome.

Sectors to Avoid

Information technology and other high-duration growth stocks warrant selectivity. The 10-year yield near 4.8% raises the discount rate applied to future cash flows, while higher financing costs can put pressure on richly valued companies. September's seasonal weakness also tends to expose crowded technology positions.

Consumer discretionary is another area to approach cautiously. A softer labor market, elevated energy costs and still-high borrowing costs can weigh on household purchasing power and discretionary spending.

3 Sectors to Focus On

Energy- Chevron: Energy offers a clear way to benefit from higher oil prices. Brent crude closed at around $95.63 a barrel on Sept. 2, as geopolitical tensions continue to raise concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

For Chevron, one of the largest publicly traded oil and gas companies, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share (EPS) is $16.24, implying 122.8% projected growth over 2025 and a long-term estimated growth rate of 20.7%. Its forward 12-month P/E is 10.85X, discounted compared to the S&P 500’s 19.91X. CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
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Financials - JPMorgan Chase: Financials can offer relative resilience if interest rates remain elevated, while improving loan demand and capital-markets activity provide additional earnings support. JPMorgan, one of the biggest global banks, raised its 2026 net interest income (NII) outlook to approximately $105.5 billion from its previous target of about $103 billion.

The higher outlook was supported by strong balance-sheet growth, with average loans up 10% and average deposits up 7% year over year in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPM’s 2026 EPS is $24.93, implying 22.6% projected growth over 2025 and a long-term estimated growth rate of 10%. Its forward 12-month P/E is 14.38X. CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

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Healthcare - UnitedHealth Group: Healthcare can be a defensive choice if weaker labor-market data raises concerns about economic growth. UnitedHealth has the largest and most diverse membership base within the managed-care organization market, which gives it significant competitive advantages.

The consensus estimate for UNH’s 2026 EPS is $19.82, implying 21.2% projected growth over 2025 and a long-term estimated growth rate of 13.4%. Its forward 12-month P/E is 18.46X. UNH currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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