DOW's Shares Rally 30% YTD: What's Driving the Momentum?

Dow Inc.’s DOW shares have gained 29.9% so far this year. The company has also outperformed the Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry’s 22% rise over the same time frame. 

DOW has been gaining from its cost-reduction and productivity improvement efforts, strategic expansion in high-growth markets and feedstock advantages in the Americas, even as it navigates a challenging macroeconomic environment. 

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Let’s take a look into the factors that are driving DOW stock.

DOW Gains on High-Return Projects & Self-Help Actions

Dow benefits from its differentiated portfolio and advantaged feedstock positions in the Americas. It remains focused on investing in attractive areas. Its broad portfolio, significant low-cost feedstock positions, global footprint and market reach place it in an advantageous position against competitors. While Dow faces headwinds from heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, it remains focused on growth actions in attractive end markets and executing high-return incremental growth projects in cost-advantaged regions. 

Recent alkoxylation investments are contributing to growth in the Industrial Solutions business. The company is also expanding specialty silicones capabilities for mobility, electronics and healthcare, while increasing its emphasis on higher-value downstream applications. Dow has completed the shutdown of its higher-cost Barry, U.K., upstream siloxanes unit, shifting its silicones mix by more than 25% toward more stable and higher-margin businesses while maintaining value-chain integration.
 
The Barry action is expected to provide about $60 million of EBITDA uplift in the second half of 2026. Dow also restarted its lowest-cost and most flexible European cracker in Terneuzen and remains on track to shut the Bohlen cracker by year-end 2027, actions aimed at improving its cost-curve position and regional flexibility. The Alberta project continues to progress on its revised timeline, with roughly 60% of capital expenditures already spent, most critical labor contracts awarded and incentives intact.

Dow continues to emphasize cost and operational discipline through restructuring, productivity and process simplification. The company materially completed its $1 billion 2025 cost program and delivered more than $300 million of in-period self-help benefits in the second quarter of 2026. It now expects more than $1.3 billion of total self-help benefits in 2026. DOW has launched the “Transform to Outperform” initiative to improve productivity, reduce complexity, streamline its end-to-end processes and enable improved returns. The initiative is expected to contribute about $700 million in 2026.

Dow Inc. Price and Consensus

Dow Inc. price-consensus-chart | Dow Inc. Quote

DOW’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

DOW currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Worthington Steel, Inc. WS, Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS and Avient Corporation AVNT. WS currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while CRS and AVNT carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WS’s current-year earnings stands at $3.4 per share, implying a 52.5% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WS’s current-year earnings has moved up 25.9% over the past 60 days.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRS’s current fiscal-year earnings is pegged at $13.28 per share, implying a 23.4% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 8.4%.
 
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVNT’s current-year earnings is pegged at $3.2 per share, indicating a 13.5% year-over-year increase. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.4%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research