American Public Education (APEI) Down 0.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for American Public Education (APEI). Shares have lost about 0.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is American Public Education due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

American Public Q2 Earnings & Revenues Top on Enrollment Growth

American Public Education reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents by 44.4%. The figure improved from a loss of two cents in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenues of $171.7 million rose 5.5% year over year and topped the consensus mark of $171 million by 0.4%. Higher Health+ enrollment and Military+ net course registrations supported growth, while Health+ enrollment climbed 6.6% to about 19,600 students. The absence of GSUSA revenue after its July 2025 sale was a partial offset.

American Public's Military+ Segment Builds Momentum

Military+ revenues increased 4.7% year over year to $85.5 million, primarily on higher net course registrations. Registrations rose 2% to about 98,300 from 96,400, driven mainly by increases in military registrations from students using tuition assistance and financial aid.

Operating income increased 10.6% to $23.7 million from $21.4 million. The operating margin expanded to 27.7% from 26.2%, helped by higher revenues and a $0.8 million decline in employee compensation costs, partly offset by a $2 million increase in advertising costs.

APEI's Health+ Segment Extends Growth

Health+ revenues advanced 11% year over year to $86.2 million. The improvement reflected 9.2% growth in on-ground enrollment, 3.4% growth in online enrollment and the impact of tuition increases implemented in the second half of 2025.

The segment posted operating income of $0.3 million compared with a loss of $2.4 million a year ago. Its operating margin improved to 0.4% from negative 3.1%, as higher revenues more than offset increases in advertising, employee compensation and information technology costs.

APEI's Q2 Profitability Broadens

Adjusted EBITDA increased 36.8% year over year to $20.7 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 275 basis points to 12% from 9.3% in the prior-year quarter.

Total costs and expenses rose 1.6% to $158.2 million. Instructional costs and services declined 2.3% to $76.6 million, while selling and promotional expenses increased 14.5% to $40.1 million, mainly due to higher advertising spending. General and administrative expenses declined 1.7% to $37.5 million, even as bad debt expense rose to $5.9 million from $4.8 million. The operating margin improved to 7.9% from 4.3%.

American Public's Liquidity Position Strengthens

Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments totaled $222.8 million at June 30, 2026, up 26.2% from $176.5 million at 2025-end. Total debt was $88.9 million, leaving $133.9 million of cash and short-term investments in excess of debt.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $75.4 million for the first six months of 2026 compared with $51.8 million a year earlier. The increase primarily reflected collections of delayed Military+ tuition assistance receivables and improved financial performance. APEI repurchased 70,365 shares during the quarter, with $45.0 million remaining under its authorization.

American Public Raises 2026 Outlook

For the third quarter of 2026, American Public expects revenues of $164.5-$167.0 million compared with $163.2 million a year ago. Earnings are projected at 18-29 cents per share, while adjusted EBITDA is expected between $14.0 million and $17.0 million. Military+ registrations are expected at 101,000-103,000, while Health+ enrollment is projected at 19,100.

For 2026, APEI raised its revenue outlook to $690-$698 million from $686-$696 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $96-$104 million from $93-$102 million. Earnings guidance increased to $2.48-$2.79 per share from $2.33-$2.68, while the capital expenditure forecast was lowered to $25-$28 million from $28-$32 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -43.42% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, American Public Education has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, American Public Education has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

American Public Education is part of the Zacks Schools industry. Over the past month, Strategic Education (STRA), a stock from the same industry, has gained 1.8%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2026 more than a month ago.

Strategic Education reported revenues of $337.26 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.9%. EPS of $1.76 for the same period compares with $1.52 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Strategic Education is expected to post earnings of $1.92 per share, indicating a change of +17.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.1% over the last 30 days.

Strategic Education has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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