We’re taking a break from economic reports this Hump Day, seeing pre-market futures drift into the red. Without any relief in sight as the battle in the Strait of Hormuz continues to heat up, spot oil prices are up +2.8% this morning: $95 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $100/bbl on Brent. This is the first three-figure price of oil since late July.
Pre-market futures follow yesterday’s close into negative territory: -279 points on the Dow, -25 points on the S&P 500 and -172 points on the Nasdaq. Bond yields are up, with the 40-basis point (bps) yield margin intact: +4.81% on the 10-year bond and +4.41% on the 2-year. The 30-year is holding steady at +5.25% at this hour.
Inflation Prints Due Thursday & Friday: PPI, CPI
Along with Thursday morning Weekly Jobless Claims, the wholesale print on monthly inflation — the Producer Price Index (PPI) — comes out for the month of August. Investors should brace for a big jolt: +5.3% is the tally forecast, up 60 bps from the big drop to +4.7% in July. Core PPI dropped half a percentage point last month to +4.2%.
These are still very high numbers — more than double ex-Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s optimal level of U.S. inflation, +2%. Even subtracting the food and gas costs, +4.2% core PPI demonstrates how inflation has permeated economic forces beyond those directly impacted by high oil prices. A downward surprise here tomorrow would be most welcome.
To a certain extent, Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the retail side of inflation, compared to the PPI’s wholesale side — can be expected to rise or fall with PPI numbers. But retailers also have the option to reduce margins in order to keep prices down. That said, headline CPI is expected to reach +3.4% for August — exactly where July wound up. Core CPI looks to be even healthier, having matched the low of 2026’s +2.5% reported a month ago.
Because Q3 earnings season is still a month away, we’re on the lookout for important economic metrics that might move market trading. These forthcoming inflation numbers appear most likely to fit this bill. Part of the high expected numbers is already baked into economists’ understanding of the Iran war — which will end one day, we are promised — with the strain on global oil supplies. But when we look under the hood, will we see inflation taking a bigger bite out of the economy, or a smaller one? That’s what to look for.
Earnings Reports at a Glance: JMKE, JILL & More
Despite Q2 earnings season being “over,” we see a few notable exceptions ahead of the opening bell. The inaugural earnings report for Jersey Mike’s Subs JMKE — it went public July 30th of this year — showed revenues for Q2 nearly exactly matching the Zacks consensus at $208 million, Same-store guidance is up from the expected +2.4% to a range of +2.5-3%. Shares are up +2% in early trading, but still just under water from the IPO price.
J. Jill JILL demonstrated strength in its Q2 report this morning, with he women’s clothier posting a +110% positive earnings surprise: $1.24 per share versus expectations of $0.59. Revenues of $154.8 million in the quarter outpace estimates by +2.67%. Shares are up +7.7% ahead of the open, adding to its stellar +44.6% gains year to date.
Signet Jewelers SIG shares are up +17% following its impressive earnings beat: $2.19 per share versus expectations for $1.69. Revenues were a smidge below estimates to $1.53 billion in the quarter, and the stock now blasts off into positive territory year to date.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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