Can BigBear.ai Keep Expanding Its Government Customer Base?

BigBear.ai BBAI appears to be gaining traction with government customers as demand for mission-ready AI, secure generative AI and autonomous-system technologies grows. In the second quarter of 2026, the company secured more than 20 new contracts with existing and new customers, with individual values reaching up to $5 million. This followed a $53 million long-term intelligence-community contract announced in the first quarter. Backlog also increased 9% from year-end 2025, supporting better revenue visibility.

Recent wins show that BigBear.ai is broadening its reach across government agencies. After adding NASA as an Ask Sage customer, the company secured a contract with Naval Air Systems Command, which supports U.S. Navy and Marine Corps aircraft and weapons systems. BigBear.ai also expanded its generative AI offering for defense and other federal departments, adding air-gapped capabilities that allow AI deployment in highly secure environments. Its ConductorOS platform has also demonstrated interoperability during U.S. Army exercises, strengthening its relevance as defense agencies increase investments in drones and autonomous systems.

Another potential advantage is BigBear.ai’s CMMC Level 2 certification, which validates its ability to protect controlled government information and could strengthen trust with federal customers.

Still, government procurement remains vulnerable to budget constraints, funding delays, contract cancellations and shifting priorities. Overall, BigBear.ai’s expanding contract pipeline, specialized secure-AI capabilities and deeper defense relationships provide a solid foundation for further government customer growth, although consistent contract conversion will be key.

How BBAI Compares With Key Government AI Rivals

Palantir Technologies PLTR and C3.ai AI represent two key competitors as BigBear.ai seeks to expand its government customer base. Palantir remains a formidable rival because of its deeply established position across U.S. defense and intelligence agencies. Palantir’s U.S. government revenues surged 90% year over year to $809 million in second-quarter 2026, highlighting strong adoption of its AI and data platforms across federal missions. Palantir’s scale, existing relationships and ability to expand deployments within agencies could intensify competition for new AI contracts. 

C3.ai is also strengthening its federal presence. In fiscal first-quarter 2027, C3.ai closed agreements with the USDA, Defense Logistics Agency, Department of War and Marine Corps. C3.ai continues to target federal growth through its enterprise and agentic AI offerings. For BigBear.ai, competing with Palantir and C3.ai will depend on differentiating through specialized, mission-ready AI and secure deployment capabilities.

BBAI’s Price Performance, Valuation & EPS Estimate Trend

Shares of BBAI have plunged 29.3% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, as shown below.

BBAI’s 6-Month Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

BBAI stock is currently trading at a discount compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8.82, as evidenced by the chart below.

P/S Ratio (F12M)

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BBAI’s 2026 loss per share has widened in the past 60 days, as shown below. However, the estimated figure indicates a narrower loss than the year-ago loss of 82 cents per share.

EPS Trend of BBAI

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

BBAI’s Zacks Rank

BigBear.ai currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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