Why Is Amerisafe (AMSF) Down 16% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Amerisafe (AMSF). Shares have lost about 16% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amerisafe due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for AMERISAFE, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

AMERISAFE Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Strong Premium Growth

AMERISAFE reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 44 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 17%. The bottom line declined 17% year over year.

Operating revenues increased 10.3% year over year to $83.95 million and topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1%.

The quarterly result was affected by higher expenses and weaker underwriting margins, with additional pressure from lower investment income. Strong premium growth partly offset these headwinds.

AMSF’s Q2 Performance

Net premiums earned of $77.3 million advanced 11.4% year over year. The metric topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%. Net investment income fell 2.4% year over year to $6.5 million due to lower average investable assets, partly offset by a higher book yield. The reported figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%. Fee and other income more than doubled year over year, rising 102.8%.

Total expenses escalated 15.8% year over year to $73.7 million due to higher loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred, and underwriting and other operating costs.

AMERISAFE’s pre-tax underwriting profit amounted to $3.6 million, which fell 37.9% year over year. Operating net income of $8.3 million declined 17.9% year over year in the reported quarter.

The net combined ratio deteriorated 370 basis points year over year to 95.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 92.6%.

AMSF’s Q2 Financial Update

AMERISAFE exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $65.5 million, up from $61.9 million at the end of 2025. Total assets edged down to $1.127 billion from $1.130 billion at the end of 2025.

Shareholders’ equity decreased to $250 million from $251.6 million at the end of 2025.

Book value per share was $13.49, down 3.4% year over year. Return on average equity improved 230 basis points year over year to 23.5%.

Capital Deployment Update

AMERISAFE bought back common shares worth $5.6 million during the second quarter. As of June 30, 2026, $7.3 million remained under its share buyback program.

Management approved a quarterly cash dividend of 41 cents per share, which will be paid on Sept. 25, 2026, to its shareholders of record as of Sept. 11.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -9.62% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Amerisafe has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Amerisafe has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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