It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Alaska Air Group (ALK). Shares have lost about 7.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Alaska Air due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Alaska Air Group, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Alaska Air Incurs Loss in Q2
Alaska Air Group reported a second-quarter 2026 adjusted loss of 92 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 97-cent loss, with an average surprise of 5.2%. The company had posted adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share a year earlier.
Operating revenues increased 9.7% year over year to $4.07 billion but missed the consensus mark of $4.10 billion. Revenue per available seat mile rose 8.6%, while an 85% increase in economic fuel cost weighed heavily on profitability.
Passenger revenues increased 9% year over year to $3.64 billion. Loyalty program other revenues climbed 23% to $258 million, while cargo and other revenues advanced 17% to $163 million, reflecting strength across the company’s diversified revenue streams.
Premium revenues grew 15%, managed corporate revenues rose 30% and loyalty cash remuneration increased 19%. However, historic rainstorms in Hawai‘i disrupted spring-break travel and reduced system unit revenues by approximately 3 percentage points during the quarter.
Consolidated traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, declined 0.8% while capacity increased 1%. The load factor fell 1.6 percentage points to 82.3% as passenger volumes decreased 1.2% to 15.1 million.
Yield increased 9.6% to 18.21 cents, and passenger revenue per available seat mile rose 7.5% to 14.99 cents. Total revenue per available seat mile reached 16.72 cents, up from 15.39 cents a year earlier, as stronger pricing offset weaker traffic trends.
Total operating expenses surged 24% to $4.23 billion. Aircraft fuel expense increased 86% to $1.31 billion as economic fuel cost rose to $4.43 per gallon from $2.39. The increase added approximately $600 million of fuel expense during the quarter.
Wages and benefits rose 6% to $1.24 billion, while landing fees and other rentals increased 10%. Other operating expenses climbed 22%. These increases more than offset lower special-item costs and a slight decline in third-party regional carrier expenses.
Cost per available seat mile excluding fuel, freighter costs, performance-based pay and special items increased 6.5% to 11.40 cents. This was better than the company’s prior expectation for high-single-digit growth.
Around 2.5 percentage points of the increase came from transitory factors. These included an employee recognition award tied to completing a single passenger service system, the absence of prior-year aircraft sale gains and crew training costs for the international widebody expansion.
Operating cash flow totaled $185 million during the second quarter and $606 million for the first six months of 2026. The company ended June with $3.8 billion in available liquidity after completing $1 billion of financing during the quarter.
Cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.06 billion, while marketable securities totaled $1.60 billion. Long-term debt and finance leases increased to $5.78 billion from $4.83 billion as of 2025-end. Adjusted net debt to EBITDAR rose to 4.8 times from 2.9 times, while debt to capitalization increased to 65%.
For the third quarter of 2026, Alaska Air expects adjusted earnings between breakeven and $1 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $1.41 per share. Capacity is projected to rise 2%-3%, with nearly all growth coming from long-haul international flights out of Seattle.
Unit revenue is forecast to increase in the low double digits, while non-fuel unit costs are expected to rise in the low to mid-single digits. The outlook assumes an economic fuel cost of $3.75 per gallon, below the second quarter’s level, as refining margins moderate.
Having started in February, the downfall aggravated in March, with cancellations exceeding bookings. Demand is around 90% below the normal level.
Revenues came in at $1,636 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,691.1 million. The top line also declined approximately 13% year over year. Passenger revenues — contributing 90.5% to the top line — were down 14% on a year-over-year basis.
Operating Statistics
Consolidated traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, declined 14.4% year over year in the reported quarter. Capacity (measured in available seat miles) dropped 1.3%. Load factor (percentage of seats occupied by passengers) deteriorated 1,070 basis points to 69.6% as traffic declined more than the amount of capacity contraction.
Total revenue per available seat mile (RASM: a key measure of unit revenues) fell 11.7% year over year to 10.69 cents in the quarter under discussion. Meanwhile, yield inched up 0.9% to 13.9 cents.
Operating Expenses & Income
In the first quarter, total operating expenses (on a reported basis) were up 6% year over year to $1,957 million, with expenses on wages and benefits increasing 10%. Fuel price (economic) was $1.93 per gallon, down 9.4% year over year.
The company reported operating loss of $321 million in the first quarter against operating income of $25 million in the year-ago quarter. Consolidated cost per available seat mile — excluding fuel and special items — inched up 1.8% to 9.22 cents.
Liquidity
At the end of the first quarter, this Seattle, WA-based company had $2,125 million in cash and marketable securities compared with $1,521 million at the end of 2019.
The company exited the quarter with long-term debt of $1,203 million compared with $1,264 million at the end of 2019. Adjusted debt-to-capitalization ratio was 48% compared with 41% at the end of December 2019.
Airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, rose 44.2% year over year to 13,554 million in the reported quarter. Capacity or available seat miles increased 41.1% to 15,612 million. Load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) increased 190 basis points to 86.8% owing to traffic growth outpacing capacity expansion.
Passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM: a key measure of unit revenues) increased 1.3% year over year to 11.57 cents. While total revenue per available seat mile (RASM) declined 0.4% to 13.46 cents in the reported quarter, yield declined 0.8% to 13.33 cents.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -51.47% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Alaska Air has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Alaska Air has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days
Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."
Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.9% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention.
See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
