Can MCD's Value Reset Turn U.S. Traffic Weakness Into Sales Growth?

McDonald’s Corporation MCD is working to restore U.S. traffic momentum through a sharper value strategy in a challenging consumer environment. During the second quarter of 2026, U.S. comparable sales increased 0.8% but fell short of the company’s expectations, as inconsistent value execution and weaker engagement among frequent customers weighed on visits.

The value reset is supported by progress across several parts of McDonald’s affordability platform. U.S. base-menu pricing across beef, chicken and beverages is now below nearby competitors, while internal value and affordability scores have improved by roughly seven to eight points. The $5 Meal Deal continues to perform well, and Extra Value Meals are meeting or exceeding expectations, with franchisees maintaining discounts of at least 15% compared with equivalent à la carte purchases.

The EDAP rollout remains a key execution variable in the U.S. traffic recovery. Approximately 60%-65% of the U.S. system was adhering to the recommended pricing architecture for the 10-items-under-$3 platform, while consumer awareness remained below targeted levels. At the same time, the pullback in digital offers and discontinuation of Buy One, Add One for $1 reduced engagement among some high-frequency customers. McDonald’s estimated that these value-related execution issues accounted for roughly two-thirds of the traffic shortfall versus its expectations in the quarter.

McDonald’s is responding by bringing back national digital flash offers, increasing personalized promotions for high-frequency users and reallocating marketing dollars toward proven value platforms such as Extra Value Meals. The company is also working with franchisees to improve EDAP execution, with pricing and pricing compliance now considered in franchisee business reviews.

MCD’s ability to restore U.S. traffic growth will likely depend on whether its value reset can improve EDAP pricing execution, reengage frequent customers through digital offers and direct marketing support toward proven value platforms such as Extra Value Meals. These actions can help drive incremental visits and strengthen baseline momentum, making consistent execution across the franchise system central to the company’s effort to improve U.S. sales.

McDonald’s Competitor Landscape

Starbucks Corporation SBUX is demonstrating stronger U.S. traffic momentum as its Back to Starbucks turnaround gains traction. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, U.S. comparable sales increased 7.9%, driven by a 4.2% rise in transactions and 3.6% growth in average ticket, while pricing contributed less than one percentage point to ticket growth. Operational execution also improved under Green Apron Service, with Starbucks achieving target service times across access points despite higher transaction volumes. Meanwhile, the U.S. Rewards base reached 35.8 million 90-day active members. These trends reflect improving operating consistency, customer engagement and transaction momentum despite continued pressure on U.S. consumer sentiment.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG is also generating positive traffic while advancing value, digital engagement and restaurant execution under its Recipe for Growth strategy. Second-quarter 2026 comparable restaurant sales increased 2.2%, including a 1% transaction gain, while menu pricing contributed approximately 1.6%. Chipotle also reported improving guest perceptions of value, while new in-restaurant enrollment tools introduced following its Rewards relaunch drove a nearly 20% increase in daily enrollments since their launch. However, recent sales trends softened as consumer caution across the broader restaurant industry increased, pointing to a more challenging demand backdrop.

Against this setup, Starbucks and Chipotle are maintaining positive transaction growth while continuing to invest in restaurant execution, loyalty engagement and customer value. For McDonald’s, improving U.S. performance will likely depend on narrowing execution gaps across its value and digital initiatives while sustaining its improved affordability positioning in a still-challenging consumer environment.

SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of McDonald’s have declined 14.6% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 7.3%.

MCD’s One-Year Price Performance

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From a valuation standpoint, MCD trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 6.51, above the industry’s average of 3.11.

MCD’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year rise of 5.6%. The EPS estimates for 2026 have increased in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of MCD Stock

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MCD’s Zacks Rank

MCD stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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