Microchip Stock Drops 9% in a Month: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold it?

Microchip MCHP shares have dropped 8.7% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s appreciation of 1.1%. The decline reflects investor concern over the sustainability of the company’s ongoing recovery. It delivered a strong first quarter of fiscal 2027, with revenues rising 38% year over year and 13.2% sequentially to $1.485 billion, while non-GAAP gross margin improved to 63.8%. Microchip guided another 7-9% sequential revenue increase for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, indicating a slowing growth rate. 

However, Microchip’s second-quarter fiscal 2027 non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 66-67% includes unusually favorable product mix, a strong high-margin licensing quarter and a one-time distribution inventory pricing benefit, suggesting limited upside beyond the fiscal second quarter. The company’s prospects remain challenging due to supply chain constraints, rising costs and stiff competition from the likes of Texas Instruments TXN, Analog Devices ADI and onsemi ON. In the past month, Microchip shares have underperformed Texas Instruments and Analog Devices, while outperforming onsemi, shares of which have dropped 8.3%, 1.7% and 17.2%, respectively. So, what should investors do with the stock? Let’s dig deep to find out.

MCHP Stock’s Price Performance

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MCHP Shares Are Trading at a Premium

Microchip shares are trading at a premium as suggested by a Value Score of D. 

In terms of the forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E), the company is trading at 21.1X, a premium compared with the broader sector’s and onsemi’s 21.05X and 18.99X, respectively. However, MCHP is trading at a discount compared with Texas Instruments’ and Analog Devices’ P/E multiples of 28.63 and 26.3X, respectively.

MCHP Stock’s Valuation

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MCHP’s Prospects to Ride on AI Tailwinds Amid Challenges

Microchip is well-positioned to benefit from a broad recovery in embedded semiconductor demand and its exposure to structural growth markets including AI/ML, data centers, edge computing and IoT, e-mobility, networking/connectivity and industrial automation. Total System Solution strategy combines microcontrollers, analog, FPGA, connectivity, memory, security, timing, software and services, allowing MCHP to capture a larger portion of customers’ semiconductor content and cross-sell across applications.

Data centers represent one of the strongest opportunities for Microchip. The company expects total data-center revenues to reach about $1 billion in calendar 2026, up roughly 69% from $591 million in 2025, supported by PCIe Gen6 switches and retimers, storage controllers, power management, security, timing and networking products. Management stated that Gen6 design wins increased from six to 14 and remain in the early stages of production. Aerospace and defense is another multiyear opportunity, while industrial and automotive markets are still relatively early in their cyclical recoveries.

However, Microchip is suffering from supply chain constraints. According to management, constraints have broadened across foundry nodes, substrates, outsourced assembly and test capacity, with AI demand crowding out capacity at some external suppliers. The company remains exposed to semiconductor cyclicality and macroeconomic uncertainty, including tariffs and trade restrictions, particularly those involving China, as well as competitive pricing pressure and fluctuations in customer demand and inventory levels.

MCHP’s Earnings Estimate Revision Shows Positive Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2027 earnings is pegged at $3.63 per share, up 15.6% over the past 30 days and indicating 121.34% growth over fiscal 2026’s reported figure. The consensus mark for fiscal 2027 revenues is pegged at $6.41 billion, suggesting 35.91% growth from fiscal 2026’s reported figure.

Microchip expects second-quarter fiscal 2027 net sales between $1.59 billion and $1.618 billion. The company expects non-GAAP earnings of 91-95 cents per share. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings is pegged at 90 cents per share, up 15.4% over the past 30 days and indicating 157.14% growth over the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for fiscal second-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, suggesting 40.55% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Conclusion

Microchip’s improving demand environment, strengthening data-center exposure and positive earnings estimate revisions support its long-term growth prospects. At the same time, supply-chain constraints, macroeconomic uncertainty, competitive pressures and a relatively elevated valuation could limit near-term upside. With the stock reflecting both improving fundamentals and lingering execution risks, investors may prefer to wait for greater visibility into the sustainability of revenue growth and margins before taking a more aggressive stance.

Microchip currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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