NVO vs. GPCR: Which Obesity Stock Is the Better Buy Right Now?

Novo Nordisk NVO and Structure Therapeutics GPCR have emerged as notable companies in the obesity and metabolic disease space, both focused on the growing opportunity in GLP-1 therapies.

Novo Nordisk is a global leader in the category, marketing semaglutide-based medicines under the brand names Ozempic (injection and oral pill) and Rybelsus (oral tablet) for type II diabetes (T2D), and Wegovy (injection and oral pill) for chronic weight management.

On the other hand, Structure Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing oral small-molecule therapies for metabolic diseases, with its pipeline centered on GLP-1 receptor agonists.

While Novo Nordisk and Structure Therapeutics differ significantly in scale, commercial maturity and risk profile, the comparison is becoming increasingly relevant as competition in the obesity market intensifies. Novo Nordisk is already commercializing GLP-1 therapies at global scale, while Structure Therapeutics is pursuing a potential future entrant. Over the long run, however, both companies are targeting the same broad and rapidly expanding GLP-1 opportunity, making this an interesting matchup between an established market leader and an emerging challenger.

The Case for NVO Stock

Novo Nordisk has seen explosive success with its GLP-1 medicines, Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic and Rybelsus for T2D.

At the same time, semaglutide-based medicines continue to demonstrate benefits beyond blood sugar control and weight loss, including reducing cardiovascular (CV) risk and improving kidney disease outcomes. These additional indications could significantly expand the addressable market for Novo Nordisk's therapies over time.

In late December, the FDA approved NVO’s 25 mg oral semaglutide (Wegovy pill) for obesity and CV disease, which was subsequently launched in early January. Since launch, the pill has surpassed five million prescriptions, suggesting solid traction. The Wegovy pill is also approved in the EU, which should further boost sales in the upcoming quarters.

In the first half of 2026, total reported Obesity care sales increased 20% year over year in DKK, or 24% at constant exchange rates, driven by higher sales across the Wegovy portfolio, including incremental sales from the newly launched Wegovy pill.

Beyond its existing products, Novo Nordisk continues to invest heavily in next-generation obesity and metabolic disease therapies. The most advanced candidate in Novo Nordisk’s pipeline is CagriSema injection, a fixed-dose combination of a long-acting amylin analog, cagrilintide and semaglutide. The company filed a new drug application with the FDA in December 2025 for CagriSema to treat obesity. A decision is expected in the fourth quarter. Another key candidate for T2D and obesity is zenagamtide (formerly known as amycretin), a novel long-acting GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist, in phase III.

However, after years of exceptional stock performance, shares have come under pressure due to intensifying competition and concerns about the company's next-generation pipeline.

The biggest challenge facing Novo Nordisk is the rapid rise of Eli Lilly LLY in the obesity market. Lilly's Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity have earlier demonstrated superior weight-loss efficacy in clinical studies, allowing the company to gain market share steadily. Despite being on the market for a shorter duration, these drugs have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. Lilly has also secured FDA approval of its oral GLP-1 drug, orforglipron, for adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related medical problems, marketed under the brand name Foundayo. The drug competes directly with NVO’s Wegovy pill. Disappointing clinical results have also shaken investor confidence in some of NVO's next-generation obesity programs.

Despite sequential upward revisions to its 2026 guidance in both first and second quarters, Novo Nordisk’s outlook remains disappointing, with the company still expecting adjusted sales and operating profit to decline 0% to 6% at constant exchange rates. Pricing pressure in the United States, slower growth momentum of injectable GLP-1 drugs, reduced Medicaid obesity coverage, and intensifying competition continue to create significant operational and executional hurdles.

The Case for GPCR Stock

Structure Therapeutics is evaluating multiple obesity drug candidates in clinical development. The most advanced candidate in its pipeline is aleniglipron, an investigational oral small molecule GLP-1 RA, which has advanced from mid-stage to late-stage development for the treatment of obesity.  GPCR had previously reported positive top-line results from both mid-stage studies of the candidate — ACCESS and ACCESS II.

Based on such results, Structure Therapeutics recently initiated the phase III ACCOMPLISH program, comprising two late-stage studies, ACCOMPLISH-1 and ACCOMPLISH-2, evaluating the long-term efficacy and safety of three maintenance doses of aleniglipron for obesity. The first patients have already been dosed in both studies.

GPCR's phase II ACCESS program also comprises a body composition study assessing the effect of aleniglipron on body fat loss and an open-label extension (OLE) study evaluating eligible patients from the ACCESS study for longer-term treatment. Top-line data from the ACCESS OLE study are expected in the third quarter of 2026, while data from the body composition study are expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company said the OLE study is collecting up to 72 weeks of data, while the body composition study has a 44-week evaluation period.

A phase II T2D mellitus study of aleniglipron in patients with obesity/overweight is currently ongoing, with data expected in the fourth quarter. The ongoing SWITCH study is assessing the transition from an approved injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist to once-daily oral aleniglipron for long-term weight-loss maintenance, with data also expected by year-end.

Structure Therapeutics initiated a phase I obesity study on its dual amylin and calcitonin RA, ACCG-2671, last year. The company has also declared a second development candidate, ACCG-3535, under its amylin oral small molecule program. GPCR anticipates reporting initial early-stage data for ACCG-2671 and initiating a phase I study for ACCG-3535 in the second half of 2026.

Beyond these, Structure Therapeutics is advancing several obesity drug candidates based on different mechanisms of action in the preclinical stage, including glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor and glucagon receptor agonists. The company’s pipeline also includes a promising candidate for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Yet, Structure Therapeutics’ biggest challenge lies in its lack of an approved product in its portfolio and the intense competition from pharma giants that already dominate the obesity landscape.

How Do Estimates Compare for NVO & GPCR?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year decline of around 3.60% and 13.89%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending upward over the past 30 days, while those for 2027 also show improvement over the same period.

NVO Estimate Movement

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Devoid of a marketed product, the consensus estimate for GPCR’s 2026 bottom line suggests loss per share to widen by around 29.58% year over year. Loss estimates for 2026 and 2027 have widened over the past 30 days.

GPCR Estimate Movement

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Price Performance and Valuation of NVO & GPCR

Year to date, shares of NVO have lost 4.4%, while those of GPCR have plunged 28.2%. In comparison, the industry has appreciated 17.9% during the same period, as seen in the chart below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, Novo Nordisk seems to be more expensive than Structure Therapeutics, going by the price/book (P/B) ratio. NVO’s shares currently trade at 6.83 times trailing book value, higher than 2.62 for GPCR.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

NVO or GPCR: Which is a Better Pick?

Novo Nordisk and Structure Therapeutics carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each at present, which makes choosing one stock over the other difficult. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Despite near-term headwinds, Novo Nordisk remains the better long-term pick over Structure Therapeutics, thanks to its established commercial base, global scale and proven GLP-1 franchise. NVO already generates substantial revenues from Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus, while the growing uptake of Wegovy pill and its deep pipeline, including CagriSema and zenagamtide, provide additional growth opportunities. GPCR, in contrast, remains a clinical-stage biotech with no approved products and greater dependence on the success of aleniglipron.

That said, Novo Nordisk faces pricing pressure, intensifying competition and a weak 2026 outlook, while Structure Therapeutics offers greater upside potential if its pipeline succeeds. However, GPCR also carries significantly higher clinical, regulatory and commercial risks. For long-term investors, NVO offers the more reliable risk-reward profile, while GPCR remains a higher-risk bet for those seeking greater upside potential.

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