Should You Invest in FCEL Stock Before Q3 Earnings Release?

FuelCell Energy FCEL is slated to release fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on Sept. 2, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $39.1 million, implying a decrease of 16.3% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus bottom line mark of -$0.32 per share has remained unchanged over the past seven days, suggesting a 66.3% jump from the year-ago reported number.

For full fiscal year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCEL’s revenues is pegged at $153.7 million, implying a decline of 2.8% year over year. The consensus mark for fiscal 2026 loss per share stands at $1.58, indicating a surge of 64.2%.

FCEL's Earnings Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of -20.5%. FuelCell Energy’s results beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other, with the average surprise being 14.4%.

FuelCell Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

FuelCell Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | FuelCell Energy, Inc. Quote

Q3 Earnings Whispers for FuelCell Energy

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that FCEL is likely to beat estimates in the fiscal third quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: FuelCell Energy has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at -$0.32 per share each.

Zacks Rank: FCEL currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping FCEL’s Upcoming Q3 Results

FuelCell Energy’s Product business likely benefited from planned deliveries to customers in South Korea. The company expected six Gyeonggi Green Energy modules to be delivered in the fiscal third quarter, which were projected to generate about $18 million in Korean repowering revenues during the period. This matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $18 million for product revenues. The scheduled shipments gave FuelCell Energy better visibility into quarterly sales and may have reduced uncertainty around this part of the business. Broader demand for reliable, on-site power also remained encouraging, with Bloom Energy BE seeing strong data-center demand and Plug Power PLUG expecting a stronger second half of 2026. 

FuelCell Energy’s ‘Advanced Technologies’ business may have also contributed positively. The consensus mark is $4.95 million compared with $4.72 million reported in the fiscal second quarter. The company delivered two carbon-capture modules to Rotterdam for work with ExxonMobil, moving the project closer to a planned demonstration in late 2026. FuelCell Energy also had $15.4 million of Advanced Technologies backlog at the end of April, with most of it connected to the ExxonMobil program. These projects could have supported steady research and development revenues. Meanwhile, Bloom Energy and Plug Power also reported continued activity across clean-power and hydrogen projects, pointing to healthy interest in alternative-energy technologies.  

But on a somewhat bearish note, FCEL’s Generation business likely remained under pressure because its 7.4-MW Groton Navy project was not operating and required an equipment upgrade. The company had already said that lower output from Groton reduced generation revenues in the fiscal second quarter. That weakness could have continued into the quarter to be reported if repairs and upgrades took longer than expected. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for generation revenues is $11.31 million, noticeably above the $8.68 million reported in the preceding quarter, so achieving that recovery may be challenging. Service revenues may not have provided much help either, as the next scheduled long-term service agreement module replacement is expected only in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.

FCEL Price Performance & Stock Valuation

Shares of FuelCell Energy have gone up 142.9% in the year-to-date period compared with Bloom Energy’s growth of 142.5%. Meanwhile, Plug Power stock has gained a modest 11.1%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation perspective — in terms of trailing price-to-book ratio — FCEL is trading at a discount compared to the industry average.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How Should You Play FuelCell Energy Pre-Q3 Earnings?

FuelCell Energy heads into its fiscal third-quarter report with a mixed setup. Planned South Korean deliveries, including six Gyeonggi Green Energy modules expected to generate about $18 million in quarterly repowering revenues, could have supported the Product business. Advanced Technologies may also have benefited from continued work with ExxonMobil, backed by $15.4 million of backlog and progress on the Rotterdam carbon-capture project.

However, the Generation segment likely remained a weak spot as the 7.4-MW Groton Navy project stayed offline for upgrades, potentially making the $11.31 million consensus revenue target difficult to achieve. With overall revenues expected to decline year over year, an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and shares already up sharply year to date, the near-term risk-reward appears balanced despite FCEL’s discounted valuation and longer-term opportunities in data centers and carbon capture.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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