ICE Stock Trades at 8.3% Discount to 52-Week High: More Upside Left?

Shares of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICE closed at $162.33 on Friday, an 8.3% discount to its 52-week high of $177.00. 

ICE stock has lost 1.5% year to date compared with the industry’s decrease of 4.2%. The Finance sector has gained 7.9% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite has gained 12.2% in the same time frame. ICE shares are losing momentum despite resilient fundamentals, likely reflecting concerns over slower near-term growth, softer second-half guidance, weakness in energy trading and slower mortgage recovery.

ICE is a leading global operator of regulated exchanges, clearing houses and listings venues and a provider of data services for commodity, financial, fixed income and equity markets. A compelling portfolio, expansive risk-management services, strategic buyouts, solid balance sheet and effective capital deployment poise it well for growth.

ICE vs Industry, Sector, S&P 500

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Shares of Nasdaq Inc NDAQ have gained 1.5% year to date, while those of CME Group CME have gained 5% in the same time frame.

Are ICE Shares Affordable?

The stock is undervalued compared with its industry. It is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 18.98, lower than the industry average of 21.6 and the median of 22.07 over three years.  
 

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ICE is relatively cheap compared to Nasdaq and CME Group.

The Case for ICE Stock

The planned MarketAxess acquisition extends Intercontinental Exchange’s network strategy into institutional credit execution while complementing its retail and wealth distribution, pricing, indices, analytics and clearing capabilities.

ICE remains well-positioned to benefit from continued digitization across the mortgage origination and servicing lifecycle. Management expects third-quarter recurring revenues to remain broadly stable as core growth and new client ramps build. The $3.4 billion in future performance obligations as of June 30, 2026, also provides strong longer-term revenue visibility.

With capabilities spanning execution, market data, clearing, and workflow solutions across major asset classes, ICE maintains a diversified business model that reduces reliance on any single activity driver. Its Fixed Income and Data Services segment continues to expand through pricing, reference data, indices, and network technology. Management raised 2026 recurring revenue growth guidance to 7%-8%, although second-half growth is expected toward the lower end due to tougher data-center comparisons.

ICE is also leveraging proprietary data in client decision-making tools. Its expanded ICE Model Context Protocol enables governed access to proprietary data within institutional AI workflows, while ICE Compass applies pricing and transaction data to pre-trade fixed-income analytics.

Finally, ICE’s $600 million investment in Polymarket highlights its confidence in prediction markets as an emerging, data-driven asset class. The investment could create synergies with ICE’s exchange and data businesses, broaden its addressable market, and position the company to benefit from growing regulatory acceptance and innovation in alternative financial markets.

However, ICE continues to increase spending on performance compensation, technology capacity and product development. Full-year 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance was increased to $4.190-$4.230 billion, while third-quarter adjusted expenses are expected in the range of $1.063-$1.073 billion.

Growth Projections for ICE

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 revenues indicates a 10.7% year-over-year increase, while that for earnings suggests a 16.6% year-over-year increase. The consensus estimate for 2027 revenues indicates a 5.1% year-over-year increase, while that for earnings suggests an increase of 8.4% year over year. 
 

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The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 12.7%.

Optimist Analyst Sentiment on ICE

The consensus estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved 6 cents and 3 cents north, respectively, in the past 30 days, reflecting analysts' optimism.

The consensus estimates for 2026 earnings of Nasdaq moved 2 cents north in the last 30 days.

The consensus estimates for 2026 earnings of CME witnessed no movement in the last 30 days.

Parting Thoughts on ICE Shares

Intercontinental Exchange benefits from a diversified exchange and a data and mortgage workflow portfolio that can perform across market cycles.  Solid growth projections and optimistic analyst sentiment instill confidence. 

However, higher operating and capital spending limiting near-term margin expansion keeps us on the sidelines. Therefore, it is better to adopt a wait-and-see approach on this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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