Bear of the Day: Coinbase Global (COIN)

Coinbase Global COIN) has spent the past several years establishing itself as one of the dominant gateways to the cryptocurrency economy. The company continues to expand beyond traditional spot crypto trading, with growing businesses in derivatives, stablecoins, payments, prediction markets, and subscription services.

But while the long-term story may remain intriguing, the near-term earnings picture has deteriorated considerably.

Coinbase stock currently lands a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), reflecting a wave of negative earnings estimate revisions following a disappointing second-quarter report.

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Q2 Misses the Mark

Coinbase delivered a rough second quarter, reporting a GAAP net loss of $359.5 million.  

The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.39 per share, significantly below the consensus estimate that called for earnings of $0.14 per share and down from EPS of $0.12 in the prior year quarter.

That translated to a negative earnings surprise of 378%. Revenue of $1.22 billion also missed Q2 expectations of $1.29 billion by nearly 6% and declined more than 18% from $1.49 billion in the year-ago period.

The underlying operating metrics provided little comfort.

Monthly Transacting Users fell to 7.6 million from 8.7 million a year earlier and came in below the 8.15 million consensus estimate. Assets on Platform totaled $245.9 billion versus expectations near $295 billion. Meanwhile, transaction revenue declined more than 21% year over year to roughly $599 million.

Consumer transaction revenue was particularly weak, falling approximately 31% YoY.

More concerning is that Coinbase has now missed earnings expectations in three of its last four quarterly reports with a very dismal average EPS surprise of -128.56%. 

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Earnings Estimates Head South

The most concerning development for investors has been the dramatic deterioration in earnings expectations.

Immediately following Coinbase's Q2 report in late July, the Zacks Consensus Estimate had called for fiscal 2026 earnings of $1.41 per share. The current consensus has now fallen all the way to a loss of $0.05 per share (F1 below). Notably, current year sales are expected to decline 29% to $5.09 billion.

In fact, when Coinbase was added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) list earlier this month, the consensus estimate for FY26 had fallen more than 81% over the preceding 60 days.

And the revisions have continued to decline since then, as FY26 EPS estimates are now down more than 102% in the last 60 days from projections of $1.74, with FY27 EPS estimates dropping 25% from projections of $4.79 to $3.59.

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As shown in the above “Q1” column, the EPS outlook for the current quarter has been slashed by more than 90%.

The current Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for earnings of just $0.04 per share in Q3, while the Most Accurate and recent estimate among Wall Street analysts sits at a loss of $0.33 per share and even further below the underlying consensus (Current Qtr below).

As also pictured below, Wall Street expects Coinbase to widely miss earnings expectations next quarter as well, with the Most Accurate Estimate having Q4 EPS slated at $0.06 compared to the underlying consensus of $0.46.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bottom Line

Coinbase holds a prominent position in the crypto ecosystem and continues to broaden its platform well beyond its roots as a spot cryptocurrency exchange. Stablecoins, derivatives, payments, and other products could ultimately produce a more diversified business model.

But the Zacks Rank is focused primarily on earnings estimate revisions and their implications for near-term stock performance.

On that front, Coinbase is moving decisively in the wrong direction.

A significant Q2 earnings miss has been followed by aggressive reductions in EPS and revenue expectations, with analysts now forecasting virtually no earnings for 2026.

With estimates continuing to move south and COIN currently carrying a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), investors may want to steer clear of Coinbase stock until the earnings outlook begins to stabilize.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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