Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights First Solar, Enphase Energy and T1 Energy

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – August 19, 2026 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses First Solar FSLR, Enphase Energy ENPH and T1 Energy Inc TE.

Industry: Solar

Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2976077/3-solar-stocks-to-watch-as-policy-shifts-reshape-the-industry

The U.S. solar market continues to benefit from strong demand from utilities, commercial customers and power-hungry data centers, with SEIA forecasting the nation’s solar fleet to double over the next five years. However, policy changes under the OBBBA and rising tariffs are creating a more uneven growth outlook by increasing uncertainty, raising manufacturing costs and putting pressure on supply chains. 

While utility-scale solar is expected to remain the primary growth driver, the expiration of residential tax incentives and ongoing trade actions could weigh on broader market expansion. A few prominent companies that solar investors may want to monitor are First Solar, Enphase Energy and T1 Energy Inc. 

About the Industry

The Zacks Solar industry can be fundamentally categorized into two groups of companies. One is involved in designing and producing high-efficiency solar modules, panels and cells, while the other is engaged in installing grids and, in some cases, entire solar power systems. The industry also includes a handful of companies that manufacture inverters for solar power systems, which convert solar power from modules into electricity required by electric grids. Per a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), solar’s share of U.S. electricity generation will be 8% in 2026 and 9% in 2027. It remains the nation's dominant form of new generating capacity.

3 Trends Shaping the Future of the Solar Industry

Strong Demand Supports Solar Market Growth: Across the United States, utilities and commercial customers are turning to solar power paired with battery storage to meet their growing need for affordable, dependable and cleaner electricity. Higher power costs and corporate decarbonization goals are strengthening the economic case for solar, while battery systems provide an added layer of reliability by supplying electricity when grid conditions are strained or outages occur. 

At the same time, surging power requirements from data centers are creating a powerful new source of demand for renewable generation and energy storage. The rapid growth of artificial intelligence, cloud services and other digital technologies is driving hyperscalers and technology companies to commit substantial capital to large-scale solar and storage projects. By securing additional generation and storage capacity, these companies can better address their future electricity needs while advancing their emissions-reduction and net-zero objectives.

A report published in June 2026 by the Solar Energy Industries Association (“SEIA”) states that U.S. solar outlook for 2026-2031 has been raised by 1.4%, driven mainly by stronger utility-scale demand. The updated forecast points to the U.S. solar fleet doubling over the next five years, although annual capacity additions are expected to remain largely stagnant. By comparison, the previous doubling of the U.S. solar industry took just three years.

Policy Changes Reshape the U.S. Solar Growth Outlook: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (“OBBBA”) has significantly changed the timeline for federal solar tax incentives. The key July 4, 2026, deadline for beginning construction has now passed, meaning solar projects that did not commence construction by that date generally must be placed in service by Dec. 31, 2027, to qualify for the Section 48E Investment Tax Credit or Section 45Y Production Tax Credit. 

Another major policy issue is the OBBBA's new Foreign Entity of Concern (“FEOC”) restrictions. These rules affect projects seeking the 45Y and 48E credits, as well as manufacturers claiming the Section 45X advanced manufacturing credit. The OBBBA also eliminated the Section 25D residential clean-energy tax credit for customer-owned solar and storage systems after Dec. 31, 2025. This has created a more immediate headwind for the residential market than for utility-scale solar. 

SEIA expects residential installations to decline sharply in 2026 following the expiration of 25D. SEIA expects the OBBBA to create a more uneven growth profile. Developers have been accelerating projects and securing their pipelines in response to the new tax-credit rules, which could pull some installations forward into 2026-2027 while creating greater uncertainty beyond that period.

Tariff Policies Add Pressure to the U.S. Solar Industry: The heightened U.S. tariffs on imported goods have been negatively impacting nearly all industries, and solar is no exception. As expected, these tariffs have increased manufacturing costs for solar companies, which were already grappling with raw material shortages due to global supply-chain challenges. 

The SEIA’s June 2026 report highlights tariffs and ongoing trade actions as a significant challenge for the U.S. solar manufacturing industry. Although domestic module production has expanded substantially and now supplies about 70% of U.S. solar installations, manufacturers still depend heavily on imported solar cells, with the United States having only about 3 GW of domestic cell manufacturing capacity. 

New preliminary antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) tariffs announced for solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos add further pressure, while Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam were already subject to tariffs. Together, these six countries supplied 78% of U.S. cell imports in 2025, meaning the trade measures could raise costs and tighten component availability for domestic manufacturers. SEIA also warned that a potential Section 232 action on solar-grade polysilicon and derivative products could further constrain U.S. solar manufacturing, depending on its scope.

Zacks Industry Rank Reflects Gloomy Outlook

The Zacks Solar industry is housed within the broader Zacks Oils-Energy sector. It currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #202, which places it in the bottom 18% of more than 247 Zacks industries.

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates bleak near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

The industry’s position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is due to a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts have lost confidence in this group’s earnings growth potential over the past few months. The industry’s bottom-line estimate for the current fiscal year has moved down 10.7% to $1.34 since May 31.

Before we present a few solar stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.

Industry Lags Sector & S&P 500

The solar industry has underperformed both its sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite over the past year. The stocks in this industry have collectively lost 6.9% over the past year, while the Oils-Energy sector has risen 37.6%. The Zacks S&P 500 composite has surged 23% in the same time frame.

Industry's Current Valuation

On the basis of the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, which is commonly used for valuing solar stocks, the industry is currently trading at 10.66X compared with the S&P 500’s 18.16X and the sector’s 5.83X.

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 32.53X, as low as 4.48X and at the median of 12.44X. 

3 Solar Stocks to Watch

First Solar: Based in Tempe, AZ, the company is a leading global provider of comprehensive PV solar energy solutions and specializes in designing, manufacturing, and selling solar electric power modules using a proprietary thin-film semiconductor technology. On July 30, 2026, FSLR reported second-quarter results. The company achieved record second-quarter and first-half module sales volume, surpassed 100 GW of cumulative global module sales, and ended June with a substantial 45.1 GW contracted backlog extending through 2030. First Solar also maintained its 2026 guidance, including 17.0-18.2 GW of volume sold, $4.9-$5.2 billion in net sales and $2.6-$2.8 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Solar’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates an improvement of 24.91% from the prior-year reported figure. The consensus estimate for 2027 EPS indicates an improvement of 36.93% year over year. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Enphase Energy: Based in Fremont, CA, this company is a global energy technology company that delivers energy management technology for the solar industry. It designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions, which connect energy generation, energy storage and control and communications management on a single intelligent platform. On July 28, 2026, Enphase Energy reported second-quarter results. The company shipped 1.59 million microinverters and 113.8 MWh of IQ Batteries, with battery shipments up from 103.1 MWh in the first quarter. U.S. manufacturing remained strong with 1.58 million microinverters and battery inverters shipped from its Texas and South Carolina facilities.

The consensus estimate for Enphase Energy’s 2027 EPS indicates an increase of 20% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales indicates an increase of 9.56% year over year. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

T1 Energy: Based in New York, the company is an energy solutions provider, building an integrated supply chain for solar and batteries. On Aug. 12, 2026, T1 Energy reported second-quarter results. T1 Energy reported approximately $250 million in net sales, while the company’s G1_Dallas facility continued to ramp up production. The company expects full-year 2026 production to reach the high end of its 3.1-4.2 GW target. T1 Energy also monetized its remaining 2025 Section 45X tax credits for $39.1 million, helping strengthen liquidity. However, it remained loss-making, with an estimated net loss from continuing operations of $34-$37 million and negative adjusted EBITDA of $14.5-$11.5 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for T1 Energy’s 2026 EPS indicates an increase of 83.25% year over year. The consensus estimate for 2026 sales indicates an increase of 27.23% year over year. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. 

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

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